2024 Democrat Presidential Candidates

[GermanSuplex]

That's exciting news. But the polls also keep getting things wrong. I can't ignore them for bad news and accept them when it's good news. So that's good, but I'm not reading too much into them at this point.

Me neither, but its certainly not a bad omen in my view. Especially since the right ignored the polls in 2020 that had Biden ahead most of the time he was the nominee, but Trump has posted probably thousands and thousands of polls on Truth Social that show him leading.

Of course, they'll take when he's ahead in the polls as proof that he's going to win, ignore them when Biden leads, and pretend the thing was stolen if it doesn't turn out their way. I expect nothing difference this time. A Trump victory is proof the elections work, and a Trump defeat is proof they don't. Everything is a post-hoc rationalization with this cult.

 

[MEJHarrison]

Everything is a post-hoc rationalization with this cult.

I came across this today. It's both amusing and scary to watch their brains shift gears so effectively and not realize it. This is why you can't have a conversation with them. Logic plays no part in their reasoning.

 

[GermanSuplex]

I came across this today. It's both amusing and scary to watch their brains shift gears so effectively and not realize it. This is why you can't have a conversation with them. Logic plays no part in their reasoning.

I watch about one of these a day. Once in a blue moon, you'll get someone honest who admits they're wrong. Most of the time, its this type of thing or someone straight-up loony speaking in tongues. I can only get through about one a day, and that's probably an unhealthy amount.

This one video is my quota. They have an opinion about things that they're told Joe Biden did but unaware they were actually Trump? Just proof they're either ignorant or willfully stupid.

 

[Yoused]

proof they're either ignorant or willfully stupid

Stupid is the part where they talk to MAGAts. It would be interesting if they approached unaffiliated voters with those questions. People who might spot that they are being played.

 

[GermanSuplex]

Biden will be campaigning this week while Trump is a New York courtroom, picking out a jury to decide if he falsified business records to buy the silence of a porn star he raw dogged. I mean mushroomed.

What is worse, a basement or a courtroom? Biden will be in neither this week.

 

[Citysnaps]

Disturbing:

"Trump’s support in the poll among registered voters holds steady at 49% in a head-to-head matchup against Biden, the same as in CNN’s last national poll on the race in January, while Biden’s stands at 43%, not significantly different from January’s 45%."

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/28/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-matchup/index.html

 

[Yoused]

 

[Citysnaps]

Here's an excellent NYT opinion piece weighing in on Biden campaign complacency.

At this point, imo, it's too late for Biden to step aside for a younger and more energetic candidate. But it's never too late to significantly step up campaigning. David Axelrod, has spoken about this in the past. It's a shame he's not directing Biden's campaign, as he did for Obama.

Opinion | Biden Is Not Winning. His Campaign Should Stop Acting Like It Is.

It’s good to have a reality check every few months.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Edd]

Here's an excellent NYT opinion piece weighing in on Biden campaign complacency.

At this point, it's too late for Biden to step aside for a younger and more energetic candidate. But it's never too late to significantly step up campaigning. David Axelrod, has spoken about this in the past. It's a shame he's not directing Biden's campaign, as hid did for Obama.

Opinion | Biden Is Not Winning. His Campaign Should Stop Acting Like It Is.

It’s good to have a reality check every few months.

www.nytimes.com

He’s been doing the rounds in the last week. He was on Howard Stern (a first for that show, I think) and also on the Smartless podcast with Obama and Bill Clinton.

 

[Citysnaps]

He’s been doing rounds in the last week. He was Howard Stern (a first for that show, I think) and also on the Smartless podcast with Obama and Bill Clinton.

His Howard Stern interview was excellent. And funny.

There was a missed opportunity regarding debating trump. Perhaps something like this:

"Yes! I'll debate trump anytime, anywhere. Even if it means needing to have it at Rikers"

 

[Herdfan]

He’s been doing the rounds in the last week. He was on Howard Stern (a first for that show, I think) and also on the Smartless podcast with Obama and Bill Clinton.

I'm sure his handlers were ing themselves when he said the would debate Trump.

 

[GermanSuplex]

Polls are all over the place. I view them as looking at the sky to determine the weather. Useful, but no way definitive. I’m actually less worried now than I was in 2020, but maybe I’m just crazy.

The ending sums it up best…

Thomas Gift, who heads the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, previously told Newsweek that reading too much into polls was "a fool's errand."

"Polls are so variable at this point that the only consistent insight we can glean from them is that Biden and Trump are neck and neck—not only nationally but in key swing states," he said. "Trying to read too much into any one poll, or even set of polls, five months out from the election is a fool's errand."

Donald Trump stung by double polling blow

Two polls have suggested the former president will lose November's presidential election to Joe Biden.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Citysnaps]

Polls are all over the place. I view them as looking at the sky to determine the weather. Useful, but no way definitive. I’m actually less worried now than I was in 2020, but maybe I’m just crazy.

For me, and keeping the devastating consequences of 2016 in mind, the polls *should* be nowhere near a statistical tie. That's just bonkers, and tells me there could be a 2016 repeat.

That needs to be totally off the table, as the consequences would be even more dire for the country. The more adverse the potential harms are (in this case they'd be devastating), the less risk I'm willing to be OK with.

With the election just six months away, hopefully there'll be some felony convictions. Even then it would still be up in the air with SCOTUS likely having the last word, and remembering Bush v. Gore back in 2000.

 

[Herdfan]

Polls are all over the place.

For me, and keeping the devastating consequences of 2016 in mind, the polls *should* be nowhere near a statistical tie. That's just bonkers, and tells me there could be a 2016 repeat.

That needs to be totally off the table, as the consequences would be even more dire for the country. The more adverse the potential harms are (in this case they'd be devastating), the less risk I'm willing to be OK with.

With the election just six months away, hopefully there'll be some felony convictions.

I am not trusting the polls with regard to who is leading. I am not sure the pollsters are seeing some of the demographic shifts yet, so the older models won't be accurate.

But I do have more trust in the polls that ask questions about how people are feeling since they need less modeling. Those are the polls that should scare the Dems.

For example, you mentioned the convictions, well when 57% of the people think the charges are political (Harvard/Harris poll), then the convictions won't matter. And the polls that ask people if they are better off today than 4 years ago and the answer is No. Those polls are telling. And you probably don't want to look at the ones about the border crisis.

A lot is made about abortion and trans rights etc, but if you can't afford to put food on your family's table, those social issues get pushed down the list and you look for someone who will help you financially.

Or maybe you can admit that Biden bumbling though speeches is starting to worry people.

 

[Citysnaps]

I am not trusting the polls with regard to who is leading. I am not sure the pollsters are seeing some of the demographic shifts yet, so the older models won't be accurate.

But I do have more trust in the polls that ask questions about how people are feeling since they need less modeling. Those are the polls that should scare the Dems.

For example, you mentioned the convictions, well when 57% of the people think the charges are political (Harvard/Harris poll), then the convictions won't matter. And the polls that ask people if they are better off today than 4 years ago and the answer is No. Those polls are telling. And you probably don't want to look at the ones about the border crisis.

A lot is made about abortion and trans rights etc, but if you can't afford to put food on your family's table, those social issues get pushed down the list and you look for someone who will help you financially.

Or maybe you can admit that Biden bumbling though speeches is starting to worry people.

I was concerned about Biden's optics and age more than a year ago.

And even though I like him as a person with his decades of wisdom and foreign policy experience, and, that he's an honest/decent/caring person (the polar opposite of trump), I believed it was time to for him to gracefully pass the torch to another qualified person.

Sadly, at this point, it will be a roll of the dice come November. Especially with trump having a 50/50 chance of winning. He's a despicable person who brags about assaulting women and views breaking the law as not being a biggie if you can get away with it. Hardly presidential material.

 

[GermanSuplex]

Or maybe you can admit that Biden bumbling though speeches is starting to worry people.

I care more about what he says and less how it audibly comes out. We’ll see in November who America chooses. The good news for republicans is they’ll never have to admit defeat, that’s the trend these days. So if Biden defeats Trump by a larger margin than expected, we can just hop back in the Time Machine to 2020 and start the Big Lie 2.0

He’s old, I get it. The alternative is a mental midget who is clearly deranged. I’m not convinced you actually watch Biden that much. Despite my disgust of Trump, I follow him closely. There’s no comparison, I expect that to be the verdict rendered by voters in November.

 

[Herdfan]

Sadly, at this point, it will be a roll of the dice come November. Especially with trump having a 50/50 chance of winning. He's a despicable person who brags about assaulting women and views breaking the law as not being a biggie if you can get away with it. Hardly presidential material.

But the Dems still have a chance to replace him. If he has a major gaffe episode before the convention, then he can he replaced. Who will be the question then.

I care more about what he says and less how it audibly comes out.

Like when he just offended our ally?


I don't think anyone can predict what is going to happen in November. This whole Israel/Palestinian issue has the potential to move the needle either way.

 

[Citysnaps]

Like when he just offended our ally?

I remember hearing him saying that recently. That got my attention and gave me pause. Poor optics.

Rather than using a $10 word (Xenophobic) in the form of a pronouncement, he could have softened it up considerably using a couple of more common words properly phrased (and not sounding like an accusation) that wouldn't have raised any eyebrows.

 

[GermanSuplex]

Like when he just offended our ally?

I've heard him say a few things I disagree with. I'd think something was wrong with me if I was in lockstep with him every step of the way. Sometimes, I agree with what he says, but not necessarily when he chooses to say it. Sometimes I flatly disagree.

That said, what you're doing is arguing we should bench Jordan and replace him with the water boy because of one foul.

There's no comparison. Trump literally shoves leaders on stage and says disgusting crap all the time, so lets hunt and peck for the rare instances of Biden saying something similar so we can just put them on an even level.

What do you think trashing NATO all the time is? An olive branch?

But the Dems still have a chance to replace him. If he has a major gaffe episode before the convention, then he can he replaced. Who will be the question then.

That ain't happening, unless republicans get rid of the mental midget sitting in court in one of his many trials first. Biden's probably running again precisely because Trump is, and I think that's the right choice. Clearly most Americans do too, we're the ones who picked them.

 

[Citysnaps]

I don't place much value from a single poll - it's a snapshot in time from one polling organization.

But...when multiple polls from different organizations, with different sampling methodologies, at different points in time, come to basically the same conclusion that it's a statistical tie within the margin of error (around 3%), for me that's noteworthy. And shouldn't be blown off. Especially when considering the makeup of the current SCOTUS.